Award for most amateur press conference

Mitchel Raphael's Macleans Magazine blog Capital Diary: Ottawa Outtakes credits York-Simcoe MP Peter Van Loan with the "award for most amateur press conference." A Tory staffer is reported to have made interns line up boy-girl-boy-girl and practice smiling in front of the podium where Van Loan would make his announcement about "expanding voter opportunities." Journalists, not surprisingly, were amused.

Van Loan's proposed legislation would facilitate greater voter turnout by increasing the number of advance polling days.

An equally effective strategy might be to nominate candidates who know how to complete simple tasks (like organizing press conferences).

Just a thought.

What if the scenario was reversed?

"They don't know English right so I start cuss'n em' and say'n all this bullshit to em' and they can't understand me and I say it with a smile and they think I'm like being nice to them or something" -- excerpt from "On Vacation in Iraq"

Several U.S. soldiers describe their experience in Iraq while degrading Iraqi children (note: explicit language.)

A winning strategy

Shane Doan responded to political scrutiny about alleged anti-French comments by scoring three goals against Belarus.

If Parliament redirects their attention onto Leaf captain Mats Sundin....

Can political prediction markets forecast political outcomes better than polls?

Investing in political futures is like gambling on the stock market. An individual pays, say, $.40 for one "share" of Barack Obama, and if he wins the contract pays out $1. If demand for Obama shares increases then the share price that pays a $1 return will increase.

Buying one share of Obama is not the same as telling a pollster that you will vote for Obama. A poll asks "If the election were being held today, do you think you would vote for the Democratic candidate or for the Republican candidate?" Prediction markets ask "who will everyone vote for on election day?" The latter question appears to yield more accurate results. In their assessment of the Iowa Electronic Markets (small-scale, real-money futures markets created for academic purposes) researches at the University of Iowa found that

the market outperformed polls in 9 of 15 cases according to both measures (election eve closing price and last week average prices). Across all elections, the average poll error was 1.93% while the average market error was 1.49% and 1.58% by the two measures. In a few cases (the 1988 and 1992 U.S. Presidential elections) the market dramatically outperformed the polls (Joyce Berg et al. "Results from a Dozen Years of Election Futures Market Research. November 2000")

Prediction markets with real cash trading may provide more accurate predictions; but like polls they might only be useful in predicting only short term outcomes. Graphs of the "2008 US Republican National Convention Market" make this clear. John McCain's stock, once competitive with Giuliani's, has plummeted like an energy stock after the announcement of environmental legislation. The market may, however, sometimes predict outcomes where polls are less conclusive. Iowa Electronic Markets currently predict Hilary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani will emerge as Presidential candidates. The market's predictions vary from a recent Rasmussen Reports poll which puts Obama slightly ahead of Clinton (32% and 30%). Percentage differences in the Rasmussen poll are statistically insignificant and leave Clinton and Obama in a virtual tie. Iowa Electronic Markets data from the same dates give Clinton a substantial lead. If Clinton pulls ahead the market would appear to have predicted the result before the polls.

Canadian political futures are available online at Intrade.com. If an election were held today Intrade.com predicts a Conservative victory. Currently, shares in "Liberal Party to win most seats in next Federal Election" are worth less than shares in "Conservative Party to win most seats in next Federal Election."

If you want to learn more check out Slate.com's converage of the 2008 Presidential Election. See also Iowa Electronic Markets, Intrade.com, or Newsfutures.com.

A look at John Baird's press releases

Canada's new champion of the environment, John Baird, a few days ago told voters the Conservative government will "come forward with meaningful initiatives on technology, meaningful initiatives on international collaboration, meaningful initiatives to get the job done."
Has Baird participated in any "meaningful initiatives"? The following are press release titles from Baird's website dating back to March 22, 2006:

John Baird Teams Up with Children's Hospital of Eastern Ontario to Promote Clean Air

John Baird Celebrates Earth Day at Lakeview Public School

John Baird Announces the Successful Restoration of the Parkdale Fire Station

John Baird Applauds Algonquin College for Green Initiatives

Baird Tours Ottawa Hospital's Stem Cell Research Labs

Queensway Carleton Hospital Thanks MPs Baird and Poilievre For Securing $1 Rent

John Baird Visits Troops in Afghanistan, witnesses first hand the tremendous reconstruction efforts by Canadian Forces

Conservative Government delivers tax cuts that students and their families can really count on

John Baird Meets with Mayor-Elect Larry O'Brien and Transport Minister to Tackle Issues Affecting Ottawa

John Baird, MP Hosts Veteran's Night at Local Legion with Defence Minister

John Baird, MP Hosts Successful First Annual Seniors' Seminar

The Ottawa Gala presents $30,000 to OCRI for School Breakfast Program

Canada's New Government cuts wasteful programs, refocuses spending on priorities, achieves major debt reduction as promised

John Baird, MP Visits Local Service Canada Office

John Baird, MP and Heritage Minister Bev Oda announce funding for Great Canadian Theatre Company

Baird & Poilievre Deliver on Hospital Campaign Promise

Major Announcement Planned For The Queensway Carleton Hospital

John Baird Hosts Town Hall on Federal Accountability Act

Baird Supports Tim Horton's Camp Day

John Baird Hosts Town Hall on Federal Accountability Act

John Baird Sworn In as Member of Parliament

Baird Lends Support to International Day to Stop Racism

John Baird has teamed up with a children's hospital, celebrated Earth Day with a public school, and congratulated a college. Where are the "meaningful initiatives to get the job done?" Perhaps he expects the children to clean things up, say, in 2050.

What sad irony.

Baird vs. Suzuki

A giant panda. John Baird. David Suzuki. Dalton McGuinty. Happy investors. They all made the clip. CTV report: Baird vs Suzuki.

O'Reilly UNHINGED and ANGRY: Stop Quoting Me!!!

This proves again (not that it needs more evidence) that Bill O'Reilly is not just stupid but deliberately dishonest.

Toronto City Council Retake

Toronto's new city council cancelled an official photo session because members could not agree over seating in the front row. Below, the successful retake. Isn't Davey Miller's bow tie adorable?


Byers, Jim. "City council bickers its way out of photo." Toronto Star. February 7, 2007.